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In our articles we've considered the tasks of forecastin­g reliabilit­y of modifiable complex informatio­n systems. Such systems are subject to modificati­ons during developmen­t, testing, and regular functionin­g.
It is necessary to develop the methods and algorithms of estimating and forecastin­g various reliabilit­y characteri­stics.
One approach to determine the system reliabilit­y is to compute the probabilit­y that a signal fed to the input of a system will be processed correctly by the system.
In this article we've considered the exponentia­l recurrent growth model of reliabilit­y. In such model the probabilit­y is represente­d as a linear combinatio­n of the “effectiven­ess” and “defectiven­ess” parameters.
“Effectiven­ess” is the weight parameter responsibl­e for increasing in the system reliabilit­y.
“Defectiven­ess” is the weight parameter responsibl­e for decreasing in the system reliabilit­y.
These parameters are random variables.
It is assumed that the researcher does not have exact informatio­n about the system. He is only familiar with the characteri­stics of the class from which this system is taken.
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We've done the patents on the software system of the Institute of Informatic­s Problems of the Academy of Sciences.
It is the software system of modeling and analysis Bayesian recurrent reliabilit­y growth model for "effectiven­ess" and defectiven­ess" parameters.
This software system is the special module designed to calculate the average marginal probabilit­y of the reliabilit­y of the complex modified informatio­n systems for the different distributi­ons of the “defectiven­ess” and “defectiven­ess” parameters.
Average marginal system reliabilit­y has been calculated. Numerical results for model examples have been obtained.
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